Sep 3, 2007

Rise or Fall - Revealed

Two words: Damn, Jamie!

Stock
: RDC
Entry: Entered short on break of 10:15 candle low
Rationale: As many of you noted, I would have preferred a more narrow entry bar, but the high/low spread was still around 1% of the closing price and that's narrow enough for me. Just like my SAFM trade earlier in the week, I was looking at price to stall, reverse or consolidate at the ORL. It did consolidate before moving down. I exited on a break of the 10:40 candle high (fib. ext.) as it looked like a tweezer bottom pattern. This trade is a great example of the trades I don't want to get away. Part of my goal of increasing the % of trades I enter that match my criteria. Sure, the r:r was not huge, but frankly, I'm ok with around 1R or slightly more return. I figure it like this... if I only enter 1 trade per day and that trade brings me 1R each time, that's 5R per week. Remember, my goal per week is 6.3R. Typically, I can find 2-3 good OONR7-type of trades per day.
I'm not trying to swing for the fences in my trades anymore, I want to enter as many valid trades that present themselves to me and - by doing that - I know I will exceed my weekly goal.

Here's the full view of the chart:

16 comments:

greytrader said...

I am OK with 1R return too. But in the long run I believe risking 1R to make 1R is not a good idea (in this case it is ~1.6R). I look for at least 2R potential and ideally 3R. If I end up making 1R I am happy , but my initial target leaves room for more.

An entry on the break of the 13th bar which was a NR7 and on the ORL would have yielded almost 19% more risking a fixed amount.

Break of 10th bar to fib: ~1.6R
Break of 13th bar to fib: ~1.9R

Just my 2 cents, it is very easy to analyze after the fact :-) These Rise or Fall are a great exercise.

OONR7 said...

gt: all very good points. I guess I'm just comfortable with making 1R. Also, I would hate to pass on a trade that set up according to my criteria... had an initial price target of just over or under 1R, but I decide to pass and it goes on to produce more than 2R or more. My system doesn't generate a crapload of entries so I try to squeeze to most out of all of them. Some pay off big... some just a bit.
And yeah, I really enjoy everyone's comments with each Rise or Fall - I pretty much check out what everyone writes about.
Hope you have a great Labor Day. Good luck tomorrow.

greytrader said...

If you only sell half or part of your shares at target and use a trailing stop for the rest, your profit potential is larger and the initial risk/reward ratio not so relevant.

I tend to sell all my shares when the target is reached. I have been caught many times holding through at reversal right on my fib target :-)

Have a good week, no holiday for you until La Toussaint then again it will be a trading day.

OONR7 said...

gt: since I enter above/below the ORL/H, I typically do partial out at those areas. However, I'm with you regarding selling all my shares at the fib. ext.
As for the French holidays... I'm good till the end of October :) I know this because my kids start school tomorrow. I am about to experience Paris like never before with mornings and early afternoons all to myself.

Joao Henrique said...

OONR7,

here is my version of rise or fall from Brazilian Stock Market. Cheating will be more difficult on these... ;)

Daily Chart
http://i8.tinypic.com/63rcwaf.gif

Intraday Chart
http://i11.tinypic.com/4gimquw.gif

OONR7 said...

cool joao. Although, there's not enough info on the chart for me to make a decision. Those upper tails and spinning tops tell me there's indecision. It looks like it wants to breakout above the 200ma.

Jerry said...

OONR7,

Please assist.

Under QT, please go to View, Edit View, add Exchange.

Then tell me if exchange shows the correctly under your symbols

OR

Does it link to level 2 MMID Tier that changed every time there is a buy/sell.

QT won't support it, so I am checking if you have the same problem with IB.

OONR7 said...

Jerry... I followed your steps and it added an exchange column. Then, there's either 22 or 18. Not sure if that's what you're looking for. BTW, I mostly use Prophet's feed.

Jerry said...

According to QT support, We can sort watchlist by Exchange.
Exchange is what stock exchange it belong to (NYSE, NASDAQ or AMEX).

However, I tried it and it wasn't. QT linked to Last trade MMID on Level 2. They finally admitted mistake. And didn't reply when they will fix.

BTW, the new version of QT added a Volume Projection. Double clicked on Intraday volume indicator > Edit... check SHOW PROJECTION.

I studied for a week and your 1.25 requirement should benifit from it.

OONR7 said...

jerry... how do I get the Volume Projection feature??? I saw that when I did a web update but haven't been able to find. Thanks for your help.

OONR7 said...

I think I figured it out. So, it's supposed to show project volume for a particular candle or through the rest of the day?

GN said...

Thanks for your extremely useful postings. I look fwd to reading your posts every day. I do have a couple of dummy questions. What do the yellow, blue & white arrows/bars on your charts signify ? And what does OO in OONR7 stand far ? (i know NR is the narrow range bar among last 7 bars)

Jerry said...

It project the next volume before it end. But not the rest of the day.

Still, it does the trick that add a little something extra to your system.

But for me, the main system I use enter at lowest volume instead.

OONR7 said...

gn... welcome. The blue arrow represents a hammer(ish), white a hanging man(ish) and yellow a shooting star(ish) candle.

OO really means nothing. Just a play on the James Bond OO7 thing. You know, because at night I'm a secret agent and during the day I trade. So, I figured I'd combine my two passions.

jerry: I'll definitely try it out... thanks for the tip.

Jamie said...

Hey secret agent man OONR7,

Which Bond is your fave: Connery, Moore, Brosnan, Craig, Dalton, or what was that other guy, Lazenby?

I definitely prefer Damn Jamie to King Jamie ;)

OONR7 said...

I grew up with Moore, so he's my fav. But I really liked Craig. Hated Brosnan.