Jul 25, 2008

Learning curve

For me, the trickest part of B&B trading is determining exactly where the base is. I think part of the problem for me is I'm trying to find a base on every stock in my watchlist and I really should just look for an obvious basing pattern and then stalk the stock.
I traded BMC today for breakeven but it really should've been a nice winner for me but I didn't recognize a new base that was setting up. I originally set my baseline at 33.52 which was the first intraday pivot point of the morning on the 3-min chart. I then made what I believe was the mistake in the trade and moved my baseline to the next pivot point of the day which was 33.11. Since my original baseline did not prove to be resistance and was later broken again I should have never moved it in the first place.
What I'm thinking, and I may be wrong, but a baseline should be an area of support or resistance where price touches on at least 2 occasions. So, essentially, my baseline should consist of two pivot points at the same price. With this rationale, 33.52 was the most obvious baseline and an area to look for a breakout. Now if you look between 11am and 12pm you'll see a new baseline appear at 33.18 with 3 pivot point areas. I didn't this and ended up paying for. Had I caught it, I would have entered on a break of the 12.06 bar which would've lead to a nice profit.
I ended up entering on a break of the 12.12 bar on huge volume and things looked good originally but then price spiked up... then down and I ended up exiting the position for breakeven.
All in all, a good learning experience despite no profit. However, I really do feel that my recent B&B discovery in addition to focusing on volume is going to really help my trading out tremendously. Another observation... there weren't a whole lot of B&B setups today like there have been the past few days. Oh, and JNPR was another nice B&B trade late in the day off the 3-min chart (2:45 bar).


bl said...

Coals 2/30, WFR Monday B/B?

Jamie said...

Sometimes, stocks form a base within a base and that usually gives the best entry. BMC has all the key ingredients that I look for. 3 PP base within a series of lower highs - ABC/123 - where ABC are the lower highs and 123 are the pivots. They usually break and run fast.

OONR7 said...

thanks jamie... I have found myself counting pivot points lately.