Aug 18, 2007

Rise or Fall - 8/18/07

And the next Rise or Fall installment. Take a look at the last candle on the chart and let me know if you would go long, short or stay out based on the information on the chart and the last candle. I will let you know what I did (or didn't do) on Monday.




Jonathan said...


I would go long.

Regards, Jonathan.

Jerry said...

I will short.

1) 2nd - 4rd bars the bull & the bear battle to break $15.99. Bear won (upper shadows getting larger).

2) 5th bar began the downward consolidation.

3) 6th - 9th (included 2 offset bar) showed the final battle and bear won as the candle finished below 61.8% retracement.

5) Daily chart had 4 bearish windows.

6) Two long wide candlestick (red) showed the begin of the bear trend.

7) Last day spinning tops with lower volume may indicated the end of the bull.

8) Although the Intraday action filled the bearish gap from 2 days ago, it can't break the resistance of the long wide candlestick (red) from 3 days ago.

Even there was a great amount of volume 4th and 8th green candlestick, the overall chart look bearish.

Jamie said...

Good analysis Jerry,

In my experience it is rare that a stock will fill a daily gap and continue in the same direction. There is almost always a retrecement of some sort after a gap fill.

On the five minute chart, I see a baseline forming at $15.00. Also, it looks a bit like an inverted cup and handle pattern is taking shape. I would short the baseline just under $15.00. Based on the C&H pattern, my target would be 100% extension of the range $16.00 - 15.00 = $14.00

greytrader said...

KFN :-)

Jamie would have gotten out 9 cents from the low for the rest of the day ! Pretty good.

I did not take the trade, I usually stick to the direction of the GAP unless there is a clear reversal bar.

greytrader said...

Resistance at 16 is also the 200MA on the 15min chart. The 200MA usually provides meaningful resistance on the 15 min scale.

OONR7 said...

greytrader... yeah, there's no particular reason why I don't have the symbol on the charts :)

Try not to spoil it the next time.

greytrader said...

Sorry oonr7. Point taken.

It was on my watch list Friday and I recognized it right away.

It is still a valid exercise... I will not do it again :-)

Thank you for a great blog

OONR7 said...

gt... no problem. I realize most folks could probably search their charts and figure it out... but why??? I'll try to find more obscure charts in the future. And yeah, Jamie is a certified badass mofo.

bl said...

My 5 min Scottrade chart looks very different...alot more shadows. But didn't know who it was and thought long if it hits the 38 fib. Seeing how Friday's gap started to fade after the first 5 min I would looked to short break of 15.

KC Equity Trader said...


Zoomie said...

OONR7, thanks for posting your trades! I have learned a lot from your posts. The trade, pass, with bias to short side. That is a lot of overhead resistance intra-day, it doesn't look like a pullback.

Rudy said...

Stay, but Bearish bias. Nice bear triangle formation + nr7-like (lower highs). Open range bar (15min)= distribution volume. Only gap fade if overall base vol < 50d ma.

My 2 cents, Rudy

greytrader said...


I am trying out with QT this weekend. They seem to have problems with the Volume backfill data, is this rare ?

Do you subscribe to the Gold service to do real time Prophet scans or do you get by with the basic that comes with prophetstream ?


OONR7 said...

gt... can't say that I've noticed any problems with the volume backfill in the past. Of course, you may find their data just slightly off compared to other data. However, it's pretty reliable. I'm actually a silver member and also use their real-time data feed in QT.