Rise or Fall - 6/22/07
Hopefully you know the drill with Rise or Fall. At this point in the trade (5-min chart), would you go long, short or stay put... and why?
Intraday chart
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Daily chart (YTD)
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Jun 24, 2007
Intraday chart
Daily chart (YTD)
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7 comments:
Well, I am not very good at looking at charts with candlesticks, I prefer bars, but I will give you my thoughts. The daily chart shows a nice higher high and looks like buying support is being formed. The intra day chart had a nice gap up and has consolidated with balance between the buyers and sellers. The previous day shows how well the equity traded when it trends to support the sideways action. On the 5 minute chart, I am looking at the last 4 bars. A box play has set up where a break of the high of 54.20 could be a signal to go long and short with a new low below 54.05?. I would stay put till price breaks either way, but I would be bullish though.
Rise.
My reasons:
- The Lower Shadow of the previous 3 bars seemed to have formed a Resistance just under 53.9472, which is somewhat in-line (confirmation) with the 3 Lower Shadows around the the 10:30 bars
- The prices from the 5-minute chart have just crossed above the Moving Average
- It appears that there is some Support provided from the 20eMA from the Daily Chart
- There is an increase in Volume (5min chart) from the last bar
However...
- The long upper shadow of the (yellow) 11:15 bar would be of slight concern.
- I would pay attention when prices reach the Opening High.
Go long when candle opens above 54.35. 54.35 seems to be resistance.
My 2 cents:
Stock will fall, reasons being (from 15 min chart analysis):
* Opening range = bearish red hammer bar, on hugh gap and volume
* 2nd bar was an indecisive doji
* 3rd bar, almost hammer-like expansion bar bouncing off 5ema = bullish
* 4th bar = bearish spinning top. Whipsaw on attempt to break-out of opening range and on increasing volume = very bearish
* 5th bar = red hammer-like bar that close below 5ema and on increasing volume = bearish.
* Also, don't like the pullback to the lows of the opening bar
* 2 red bars in a row on increasing volume after an attempted break-out
= stock must set-up properly again before a 2nd break-out attempt (such as, consolidation above 5ema + a strong bar that bounces-off 5ema)
The question I would ask myself is if I had already owned the stock would I still be happy holding it, and I find the answer to be NO, Zelch, Nada! (unless of course I owned it before the gap-up, but thats another story for one of those cold winter nights on a blustery day, as winnie the pooh would say. lol)
Thanks, Rudy
Short the stock
1) Daily chart shows Shooting start with last upper tail with higher volume than last 7 days.
2) All the Green Candle volume is higher than Red Candle volume. To me, it means there are more seller within these candle (the tail/wick).
3) The 5ma didn't catch up until near 10:45. Then 2nd bar and 4 bar after that shows long upper tail.
4) 12 noon candle is green, but is halfway between 5ma.
Bearish: weak open
bearish: #1-2 bars red pullback right from the open
#12 spinning top and failure
bullish: #9 hammer close above 5ema #16 marubozu close above 5ema
action: cash or long bullish close above OR
.38ext 55.30
Reminds me a bit of my TASR trade on Friday. I doubt that it fell based on the support line but I also doubt that it hit the 38% extension. I'll say a meandering rise above the ORH with little follow through.
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