Jun 17, 2007

Rise or Fall - Revealed

Let me apologize for all the formatting changes in last Rise or Fall post. Since this is a customized blogger template, I needed to do things a little differently so everything appears cool in Firefox and IE. That became painfully evident this weekend. In any case, it shouldn't be a problem from here on out.
As for this week's Rise or Fall... here's the trade:
Stock: TASR
Entry: Long on break of 10:25 candle
Exit: Ended up selling all shares at the fib. ext at the 11:10 candle. I didn't sell when it first hit the fib. ext as the chart really didn't warrant an exit at the time
Net result: Close to 1.6R
Rationale: Price gapped up and showed a fairly strong first bar on the :15 timeframe so I was looking for a long entry on this one from the get go. Price proceeded to drop below the 61.8 level (bearish sign) but didn't drop too far and quickly regained upward momentum with a very bullish 10:15 candle (5-min chart). My entry bar was very strong on increased volume (higher than the previous 4 candles) and above the 38% fib. level. The entry bar did have a little upper tail, but nothing too scary. I was concerned about the volume spike during the 10:40 candle as it cleared the OR high and was looking to see if a bearish candle formed immediately afterward... which did, but the next candle never took out its low.
Here's the full view of the chart:


Prospectus said...

Nice trade! I hate trading TASR. It's been too wild for me in the past, but you handled it very well.

rudy said...

Well what do you know, I got lucky on my call. But keeping in mind that the chemical formulation for luck is a cup full of perspiration mixed with a dash of oppertunity.

OONR7 said...

thanks prospectus.

Rudy, you were right on the money with your comments.

Flatwallet said...

OO NR 7...

Hmm...good one

Bubs said...

hello ooNR7,

Had a quick question for you on a potential trade. Looking at this chart would a good short entry be on break of 10:25 candle? Its the 23rd candle sorry for not marking it. Just trying to understand these 5 min fib plays better. The purple line is 15 ema and yellow is 5 ema.



Bubs said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Bubs said...

Not sure why the links are not working. I have attached a link on the main page of my blog under RIMM. Thanks

Bubs said...

Thanks for the response to my question. Your right I was talking about the 10:25 candle. If that same candle was at the 38.2% fib would that have been a good entry? To me the stock went down from the open, retraced to 38.2%, then printed that hanging man at 10:25. Plus the moving averages were acting as resistance.

OONR7 said...

bubs... it's hard to answer that question because there are a lot of variables that go into a trade for me. Remember, it's not just one candle... but the pattern.

Anonymous said...

i didnt pull back a 5day/15min chart, but the set-up as shown here has an ABC appearance - the big bar BO of ORH looks like the B-pt getting taken out w. volume. would be interesting to check ABC ratio of 1:1 or 1:.681 and its relation to the 1.382 fibbo X projection.