Jun 24, 2007

Rise or Fall - Revealed

Well, what do you know... I screwed up on a post again. The intraday chart for the last Rise or Fall was actually a 10-min chart... not a 5. Hopefully you all realized it (doesn't change anything but it does reinforce the fact that I'm a horrible editor).
 
Stock: LFC
Entry: Decided to stay put
Rationale: I was actually looking for an entry on the 10:50 bar but volume was not at least 1.25x the previous bar. After this, price proceeded to shoot up and almost touch the fib. ext. during the 11:20 bar before crashing back down during the same bar. So, then came the 12pm bar with serious volume behind it and I was stumped. Should I... or shouldn't I??? I didn't because of the price action on the 11:20 bar. That said a couple things to me: 1) the move might be over and 2) probable target if it did rise was the OR high which was only a .15 gain. So, I didn't see the risk:reward being in my favor especially during last week's crappy market.
But, as you can see... price did rally pretty significantly after 12pm (except for that scary hanging man) and would have produced a nice gain. However, I wasn't hitting myself over the head as I think I made a good decision on what would have been a risky trade (IMO) to begin with.

 
Here's the full view of the chart: 

13 comments:

bl said...

nr7,
Looks like an "X" c grade if that. Bearish OR for 4 bars. Maybe the 10/15" NR spinning top would get you in the trade with .13 risk. Or 14/15"

OONR7 said...

yes, bl, "C" at best. I think X would've moved on after seeing price almost touch the fib. ext. However, price didn't close near the fib. ext. nor above the ORH on that candle so a secondary move to the top or back to the ORH would not be a surprise. But, I wasn't willing to take the risk that day. Probabilities, probabilities, probabilities, probabilities... I keep repeating.

bl said...

"I think X would've moved on after seeing price almost touch the fib. ext." Don't understand. Please clarify. I understand the 1.38 ext but....

OONR7 said...

bl... X's usual price target is the fib. ext. So, if price already hits that target, where else will it go? Beyond the fib. ext? Yes, but there wasn't a play there. Of course, I'm talking about the intraday fib. ext and X uses the previous day's low so this probably didn't even get close to that fib. ext. But... I think the concept still applies to intraday levels as well. Does that make sense?

bl said...

So you are talking 54.47 inter day fib ext, not intra-X method? Would seem easier to deal with the intra though it would pass the inter ext. just missed OMTR 4,5/15". 52 wk highs look interesting QDEL

OONR7 said...

bl... the intraday fib. ext was 54.59. X uses yesterday's low to the morning OR high (depends what timeframe). I thought intra meant 'today'.

Stefan said...

oonr7,
What kind of software do you use? Thanks!
Stefan

OONR7 said...

Stefan... for charting, I use Quotetracker. For trading, I use Interactive Brokers. For losses, I don't use either of them very well.

Anonymous said...

oonr7: LOL!

bl said...

MCHX: 4/10" .38 fib for coffee money. Missed omtr 4/15" 6/10" .38 fib by 2 cents, ushs -10/15 ffhl -7/15 goog 5/5. Totally missed hoku. Alot of multi reversals today. This market looks tired.

OONR7 said...

bl... there wasn't much on my watchlist, but I did short SII on the 11:40 bar (5-min) and was stopped out on the 12pm high break after revising my stop.

bl said...

SII-how about 1:30 or so for the short. I love it when they go zooming up/selling off just to reverse. doji reversals at 11:45//1:15 on the 15". 183 OIH then reverse, imo.

OONR7 said...

I did see that shooting star once it reached the ORH but it was out of my trading 'area' at that point and I didn't want to chase a trade. For all I know, it could've just bounced down to the 61.8 level and then bounce up again. Tomorrow's another day.
OIH was also on my very short watchlist yesterday but never saw a good entry to short it early on. The market was very strong in the morning and then tanked in the afternoon. I also don't try not to enter new trades after 12:30pm unless I see something too good to be passed up.