Jun 11, 2007

Rise or Fall - Revealed

First... thanks to everyone for commenting on the first installment of Rise or Fall. Honestly, I got a helluva lot out of it being that I did make the trade. Reading the comments, I think most of you wouldn't have entered short where I did, which is probably a good thing. So, here's the trade:

Stock: NKE
Entry: Short on break of 10:35 candle
Exit: Scaled out during 11:45 candle
Net result: Made a few bucks
Rationale: I liked how price was bearishly interacting with the 50% level. Plus, this was close to the daily support of 52.50 and price also broke below the daily 50ema. So, I wanted to 'jump the gun', if you will, and short right below daily support at 52.49 which I did. However, this was a risky trade as my entry bar was above the 5ema and price had already made a significant move down earlier in the day. I knew the risk and was ready to bail in order to limit my losses. Initial price target was the OR low or the low of the 3rd bar. If I hadn't scaled out I could've squeezed about .30 out of this before truly exiting after seeing the long lower tails in the 12 and 12:05 candles.

In hindsight... this wouldn't have been my first trade of the day, that's for sure and because of the risk, I only entered with 1/2 my normal position size.
The stock did end up making an upward move but I still don't think you all would've entered as I didn't see any compelling entries on most timeframes.

Daily chart
















Intraday chart - full view




6 comments:

Anonymous said...

00NR7,
Anytime you can squeak out a win is good. And a tough one to do it on. So you played the short for the retest(and were hoping for break below the low). I have to say that it sure takes some big ones, especially with now seeing that support on the daily of NKE. However you probably had thought that it would at least do a test of the low(on the 5 min. chart) prior any retracement to the upside. Awesome job! Might be a good one to watch for another test of this high volume low it made(daily chart). And thanks again....this is an great way to test our abilities.

Anon(original one that couldn't answer your question on the first post)

OONR7 said...

@anon: a little risky, yes, ballsy??? not really. But yes, I was expecting price to at least get to the OR low and then move beyond.
Why not post your name? Witness protection program?

Anonymous said...

Sorry, don't have google acct. and had to use anon to get the post to work, but "bigfish" will work(yea, wpp-wit.prot.program). Anyway, excellent work and definately kudo's to you for being able to crank out the blog(and to all the others that I frequently visit, but do not post). Yea for me to play the downside on that trade(and knowing now that it had that support on daily), I usually wouldn't even bother. I would probably end up wasting my whole day looking for a better trade(and never find one!) Although, if I caught that one early and watched it, I might have gone long with the retest of low(who knows, it is easy to say after the fact now)
Keep up the great work 00NR7 and best of luck on your trades!

tks, Bigfish(anon)

OONR7 said...

thanks Bigfish... isn't there an 'other' button when you place your comments? You can usually type in any name. But hey, so long as you end with Bigfish, I'll know who I'm talking to.
Glad you enjoy the blog so far and hope to keep bringing some good trades.

Bigfish(old anon) said...

I am trying it now....lets see if it works...Thanks!
Bigfish

OONR7 said...

perfect. Ah...