Jul 29, 2007

Rise or Fall - Revealed

The symbol for this week's Rise or Fall was AMP. And if you decided to go long on a break of the hammer high, you probably would've made some money if you got out in time. At worst, you probably would've broke even. In all honesty, I didn't even consider trading this stock but it did stick out because of the perfect hammer that formed on increased volume. But, as X has stated in the past, not every hammer is the same. In the past (about a year ago) I probably would consider this a very good time to enter, but with the way I'm trading now, I would not have entered for two very big reasons:

  • Potential entry bar did not close above the 38% fib. level
  • Bar prior to potential entry bar (PEB) was a down bar and the PEB was not convincing enough for me to take a position.
Closet daytrader noted in the comments that I did not draw my fibs. to the high of the day. He/she was right. If I had... I wouldn't have even considered the trade at the time as it would've been well below the 38% level.


10 comments:

Closet Daytrader said...

Only if my Paper Trading is this accurate! Ha Ha!

Just to save you some potential keystrokes in the future (since I am/will continue to read and learn from your blog), I'm a 'he.'

:-)

OONR7 said...

lol... thanks for saving me from future pinky cramps.

Jamie said...

OONR7,

So the shorts own it if I understand the game correctly. If you shorted a break of the blue candle low, you would have made much more money than the tiny profit on a long entry. Risk/reward was good too.

OONR7 said...

Ehhhh... only if you considered the hammer bar your entry later in the day. But at the time I was looking at the trade... I couldn't go short even if I wanted to because the low was not broken on the next bar. It wasn't till about 1:45 that the low was broken.
However, after further review, I would have to rule that the shorts were not the winners based on the information at the chart at the time. And that's my final answer :)

OONR7 said...

but you do win a lovely consolation prize... a can of strawberry flavored Spam. Yum. Where should I send it?

Jamie said...

Okay Boss, it's your game and I don't want to be a sore loser. ;)

Some of my best B&B setups are these type of NR flat base breakouts. True, I would have waited for a retest of the low of the blue bar. The third test usually is the one that breaks, and thats ultimately what happened here. :)

Strawberries - yum; spam - no thanks!

OONR7 said...

I'm a big fan of your B&B setups but if a signal isn't generated right after my entry bar, I usually wait for another setup.

Anonymous said...

i have to say - most of the comments and "reads" on the chart were excellent - in both directions.

QQQBall

KC Equity Trader said...

Awesome. Strawberry spam, my favorite.

OONR7 said...

QQQBall: I totally agree. You guys are some really good traders.