Rise or Fall - 7/28/07
Well, it's been awhile since the last Rise or Fall, so I hope you haven't forgotten the premise. Take a look at the last candle on the chart and let me know if you would go long, short and stay out based on the information on the chart. I will let you know what I did on Monday.
15-min
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Daily
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22 comments:
I can't see the daily chart price, so I would guess.
The 2 bar reverse was due to the resist of the daily prior.
The 2-5 bar have upper tail which worry me.
Although 6 bar hammer's volume was 1.25 greater then 5 bar, it didn't finished above 64.56 retracement zone.
I wouldn't trade this.
jerry: sorry you can't see the daily chart. Not sure what's up with that as it appears fine on my end in both Firefox and Explorer. If anyone else has problems, please let me know.
Also, the retracement levels usually appear on the right of my charts. But, since I need to cut these charts so I don't reveal the stock symbol and stuff... the fib. levels get cut off. So... I think you mean the 61.8% fib. level, not 64.56 (which is the price).
Jerry... have you tried any of my kind of trade setups with success yet? Reason why I ask is that you seem to know my 'system' pretty well.
I can see the daily chart, but without price Axis on left or right. Yep, 64.56 is the price. :)
I papertraded with your system when I first saw it on ESTO. But it was here that I learned all details of your system. The success rate is around 45% cos of my entries and stops. In addition, I wasn't choosing the right stocks to trade.
Now I am trying to improve on drawing the right line of support/resistance on daily chart. However, sometimes its confusing.
On a daily chart which have lots of space (ie., CHL), do we change that to weekly and place the line at the higest point in an area?
How about on a congested daily chart like T?
If I can get by this stage, I can go forward to next level.
I would go short.
Short: Reasons
Type of Set-up: Gap-Fade
Positives:
1) Strong bullish OR and rising 5ema
Negatives:
1) Prior day hugh break-down on massive volume
2) Gap-up is below prior day's high
3) Long upper tail on 2nd bar
4) Volume on 3rd bar is greatest spike in consolidation pattern
5) Descending flag configuration (lower highs)
6) Flattening 5ema
7) Bearish candlestick bar prior to nr7 short entry and is an offsetting bar (inverted hammer-like)
8) Lots of upper tails = distribution
8) NR7 c/stick on the 6th bar (entry bar)
Stock is exhibiting major bearish overall pattern = "short till the cows come home"
My 2 cents. Rudy
jerry: to be honest with you, I don't look at the daily chart when entering stocks every day. I just don't have time. I tried it on and off before but found good trades passing me by as I waited to look at the daily chart. I practically don't even look at the previous day's action either unless the trend is opposite to the direction I'm looking to trade. I have found that for the most part, I have enough checks and balances in my system to let me know if a stock is 'tradable'. Of course, there are a lot of great traders out there who really depend on the daily chart and do very well (hmmmm... King Jaime comes to mind). However, I do look at daily charts from time-to-time for fun and I usually look at the 1 week timeframe and draw my fibs. from the low to high of 2006.
Long break of 64.56
Jerry... I also fixed the daily chart, now I know what you mean.
Hmmm, here's what I see...
1) Gap-up did not clear previous day's High. Right away, this chart will fall off my radar -> (Con)
2) Upper Shadows from 2nd to 5th bar (15mins) -> (Con)
3) Support Level established by 3rd to 5th bar (15mins), near the 5eMA -> (Pro)
4) Hammer on the 6th bar (15mins), with 1.5x the volume -> (Pro)
5) Established Support Level at 50eMA (Daily), which is almost at the same price level of the potential Entry... assuming the entry is when prices break the high of the 6th bar Hammer (15mins) -> (Pro)
6) Isn't the last bar on the Daily a Bearish Engulfing candle? -> (Con)
7) I also see a potential 'Pivot Point' level at $65 from the Daily Chart. Which means that potential Resistance lies <1% ahead. Less favorable Risks vs. Rewards Ratio. -> (Con)
Conclusion:
I don't know how much of #7 applies to my decision making process. Chances are, in real-time, I wouldn't be able to pay so much attention to this much details. Therefore, if I drop #7, the score is 3:3.
Decision:
Stay Away.
Question for OONR7:
Why didn't you plot the Fib from 1st bar low to 2nd bar high on the 15mins? I thought this is how you have always done it in the past. No?
Now the daily chart is clear.
I will ask Jamie when I get the chance.
Thank you very much.
closet: good observation regarding the fib. levels. I usually do draw them from intraday swing points... not sure why I didn't here. Although, most of my trades do occur within the :15 timeframe so I suppose it was done through habit. Looking at the chart now with swing point fib. levels... I wouldn't have looked at the trade at that time.
Glad someone's paying attention :)
closet: just to clarify as well, if price marginally goes over my initial OR range after it's been set, I don't adjust my fib. levels... just too much work and it usually doesn't drastically change the outcome.
Looking at the daily chart, this stock closed below its 50 DMA for the first time on the red WRB the previous day. Loss of the 50 DMA signals a trend change. Today it opens strong in an attempt to recapture the 50, however, the second bar looks like a spinning top with a long upper shadow (deadly) and volume on the third bar (red) is stronger than the OR bar. Conclusion, this stock is going down.
Normally, after a WRB on the daily, there is some consolidation. So it may not take out the previous bar low.
nr7, What do you mean by this: "Although, most of my trades do occur within the :15 timeframe"
Long on the break of the 6/15 hammer. Minimal risk .10 for 1.25 gain to fib ext.
Add flat 5ema
nr7,
Noticed alot of longs(25) bouncing off the 5ema on 1 min charts(!!) and/or interday fibs if it sells off, intraday fibs if it consolidates or rallies sells off to fib reverses. cymi crox sncr deck boom artc vsea tune celg srcl nvda fwlt ....traded SNCR 8/15" hammer for small gain. For the most part one would have to trade around the open and be quick to have your watchlist but small. Or news theme stock. I was looking at crox at the open it sold off to the 38 fib and 5/13ema and reversed. Will see if this is a profitable strategy. Boom looked good on the 1 min and 5 min nr7 fib. All wonderful!
bl: I meant :15 OR, not timeframe.
Hey guys,
I'm fairly new to Trader-X's trading strategy. However, i have been trading for quite some time.... the main reason that attracted me was that i was looking for a good probability method for trading stocks with earnings (gap ups). I used to be a daytrader, but have recently started swing trading.... and occasionally i would encounter a scenario where i should buy on the day the stock gapped up... and that had always been a problem for me.... i could never get a good entry on a gap up stock....
How profitable or consistent is Trader-X, and your Gap up plays? I have studied a lot of the materials and looked through lots of charts from Trader-X's site, but i was hoping to get a few responses from his followers (or people who are profitable from his method)
In his blog, people seem to say that Trader-X has a lot of different setups..... but mainly they are divided into the normal setup, and the fibonacci extension setup right? and the different setups are just different candlestick pattern forming?
Is there a place where i can find a detailed outline of all the setups or important notes? Has anyone ever written one? :D
-Mike
i like this one. its a "kicker" set-up, many of the shorts from yesterday are trapped. the sell-off early was the longs from yesterday taking the chance to exit (they must have been sick overnight) and some new shorts from yesterday getting out and covering.
im long above 64.60 with a stop below 64.40. +/.20 risk. i'd add on a close above the close of the first 15 minute bar. i suspect there are alot of people caught leaning short on this one.
QQQBall
Agree with Jamie on this one - intraday is weak. On the daily - after the late June swing down to the EMA50, formed an A-B-C retracement pattern. The bearish WRB (prev day) on big volume is the start of the break down out of the A-B-C retracement - C barely poked above A. It is also the 3rd recent test of the 50 and the 3rd often succeeds. Since range contraction alternates with range expansion, I would expect the day shown to form an inside day relative to the previous range expansion day. In fact, I doubt it will take out its OR in either direction. 3-5 days out favor trading below the 50 and the recent daily swing lows that tested the 50.
I would wait a few days and see how the market is before i take anything long. i'm speaking from a swing trader's perspective of course. For example, look at CROX on friday... gapped high... amazing earnigns/revenues should've went higher, but stock came down just like the rest. If you look at a lot of the good leaders in the market right now... most of them are in a bullflag formation. Normally they would be the great candidates for a long position off the pullback as it breaks out of the bullflag formation and into new high. howerver, the reason SO many stocks are in the same pattern is not because of the stock's low volume selling or consolidation as few people take profits... these are patterns caused by the market, not the stocks themselves. I would be cautious taking anything long at the moment. As of now, only 20% of the nasdaq stocks are above their 50day moving average.... market has been dropping none-stop for 7+ days. broke its short term and intermediate term channels... this is the time most people have been dreaded.... 'cuz this is the time where the market could keep dropping and really create a bear market and have a major market correction..... of course it could also be just a pullback... but it is because of the same reasons, which is why we should wait until we at least figure out if this is just a minor pullback or the beginning of something new. Also, even if the market bounce up a day or two, it could still just be a small counter-trend bounce... the best way is to watch the market for a few days until dust settles, then once you know the true direction of the market, then concentrate on shorting or whatever you have to do.. stocks right now are not behaving normally, and that's one thing we have to anticipate..
by the way. does anyone here use msn, yahoo, or skype chat? i would love to chat with someone about the Trader-X method. I already know about it, but would love to talk to someone more in depth about it.
Mike... my best suggestion for you is to go over the charts again, look at X's comments and look at the responses in the comments section as well. While it may seem like an easy enough method - especially the way X executed the spotted the traded - I can tell you that it is not. You need to have a good understanding of price action, volume and candle formations before you really 'get it'.
I would also suggest emailing him directly with any questions. X was always kind enough to respond to my emails. His email address is located on his blogger profile I believe.
Good luck.
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