Aug 25, 2007

Exit plan

I'm all about having a plan. A plan I can stick with no matter what the circumstances or market conditions. I really do feel like I have a great plan for entries, but my exit strategy has really been suspect, especially this past week.
 
As I posted last weekend, I tried to stick with exiting off the 5-min chart, but frankly, that took me out of good positions too early. I had been exiting off the 15-min chart prior to that but I felt I was giving up profits by waiting to be taken out. So... I thought to myself, why not use both timeframes - but with a plan.
 
As most of you know, my entries are almost always above the OR low for shorts and below it for longs. With every trade, I typically have 2 price targets - the OR low (shorts) or high (longs) and the fib. ext. The OR low/high is a high resistance/support area so sometimes it's good to take notice of how price reacts at this level. However, there's no need to exit completely.

 
NOTE: FOR THE PURPOSE OF SIMPLICITY, I WILL WRITE THE REST OF THE POST ASSUMING I AM GOING LONG ON A PARTICULAR TRADE. I WILL USE THE SAME LOGIC (EXCEPT IN REVERSE) FOR SHORT POSITIONS AS WELL.

 
What I will try to incorporate is following:

 
-use the 15-min timeframe as soon as I enter the trade. If price does not reach to the OR high, I will look for a candle to penetrate or close below the 5ema and then sell on a break of that candle's low

 
-if price reaches the OR high and looks like it's stalling, I will look at the 5-min chart. If a candle penetrates or closes below the 5ema I will sell HALF my position on a break of that candle's low
-if I have sold half my position, I will then solely look at the 15-min chart for my exit... no matter what (even if it hits my original stop)
 
-if price does not stall at the OR high, I will solely look at the 15-min chart for my exit. However, if price reached the fib. extension during this time, I can feel good about selling all my position or what's left at or above the fib. ext.

 
Example of selling half at the OR high

Example of selling remaining shares based on the 15-min timeframe
I like this plan. I feel it caters to my style of trading (since I enter below the OR high) and incorporates the 5 and 15-min chart - which will help to limit my losses and let my winners run. I will be methodical and follow this plan for the next 4 weeks... without variation.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

wiol be interesting to see how it works out.

as an aside... the 11:45 bar on AKS looks like a decent entry?

good luck

QQQBall

Jerry said...

It was something that I worked on during my 2 days off. Very similar but I use 5, 10 & 15 (10 min as main exit)

OONR7 said...

QQQBall... the 11:45 bar was a nice X-style entry.

jerry... I was thinking about using the 10 as well, let me know how it works out.

OONR7 said...

just noticed that based on this exit plan, I would've actually been stopped out on a break of the 14th bar low (15-min). Oh well... maybe not a good example.