Sep 4, 2008

Whipped

So... another down day. While I've had a string of down days... each days isn't neccessarily a monetary disaster. But, in keeping with my one-word posts on down days, I make it seem more dramatic than it should be. Also, I'm really not in the mood to post anymore after a down day. I see no therapy in it. Anyway... I traded SNDA, MFE, IM, GLW. All were losses except SNDA. MFE andn GLW were full losses and IM was essentially breakeven. Despite the losses, I feel like I'm on to something and expect (hope/pray) Thursday (today) to be better. 


2 comments:

ralph said...

OONR7: is it because you're trading 3 min time frame that obviously give more trading signals? Perhaps best to resort back to 15 min?

Here is my thinking:
1- scan for gaps with vol at 10:00 am greater than 2.5x 50 day ma (eg, 50d 1m * 2.5 = 2.5m / 13 (# of 1/2 in a trading day) = 192k.

This method of only looking for b/o on big volume will also help to narrow your watch list on those hectic trading days.

Another great tip is to pre-define your database list by eliminating stocks, for example, less than $20, or greater than $80 and 50 day volume less than 500k, etc. This will allow you to gap scan about 1000 stocks in less than 15 mins, instead 5000, which can take about an hour to scan! So a big time saver.

2- Watch the 15min chart closely between 10:00 - 11:30 for OR piercing (b/o) on a bar that closed strong, not too extended from 5ema, and a narrow range candlestick. The longer you spend staring at the charts during the day the more you'll make bad trade, and more pressured to make up for lost time.

3- Use money management to manage the trade for the rest of the day. This is why I feel you need to time the entry early so you can give the trade enough time to cook!

I did exactly this for the month of august and netted 15R. Key point, if no signal by 11:30 stop trading and discontinue obsession with market.

Also by focusing on money management exit strategy, you will notice your biggest gains will come from exiting at end-of-day. This is how you make money! Exiting at 2R or fib, covers your minor losses. Letting profits run is the key!

Also, you need only a couple of big winners a month to come out ahead.

Perhaps, if you restudy all of TR trades for a few months carefully, calculating his money management exit rules, you will see the beauty of his system.

Best of Luck, Ralph

OONR7 said...

ralph: thanks for the nice post. I've already been implementing some of the items you mentioned such as removing stocks < $15 and > $100. That's helped to reduce my list quite a bit. What I did differently today than in the past is use the :15 in conjunction with the 3-min timeframe. So, if I see an opportunity on the :15 I look for confirmation on the 3-min.
TR does indeed trade well but we all have to find what works for us.

Congrats on a great August!!!