Rise or Fall - 6/16/07
For this week's installment of Rise or Fall, I'm also including a screenshot of the weekly chart. So... at this point in the stock - the point where I made a decision - I'd like to know if you would've gone long, short or decide to stay out of the trade... and why.
Here's the intraday, 5-min chart. Blue line is the 5ema:
EDIT: This site and chart looks really funky in IE7. So, I encourage everyone to download Firefox. You can import all your current bookmarks... yet, surf the net fast as pages upload much faster in Firefox. From now on, I'm just going to make sure charts show up in IE7 but I'm not going to format the text to conform to IE7. Sorry.
UPDATE: I think I solved the problem with IE7. Let me know if you all have any further issues.
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Here is the weekly chart for the last 2 years (drawn lines show pivot points):
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19 comments:
The 5 min. chart does not appear in either Firefox or IE. The weekly appears in both.
Jamie... that actually is the 5-min chart. I guess the way I scrunched it made the time increments by :10. You'll see the candles are actually 5 minutes apart.
I guess you really scrunched them tight, or else I need glasses, cause all I see is a tiny box with a red X in the middle.
lol... this Rise or Fall has been a royal pain in my ass. Okay, I upload the chart to the post again. Can you see it now?
Yes!
Thanks.
phew... thank you.
I like the volume on the weekly and the OR of the 5 min. Ideally, it would set up a base and break long from a NRB on the retest of the morning swing high.
now I can't see the 5-min chart once I click on it...
Must be a problem with Blogger. Text is running into the margins as well. But I can still see the charts.
Hi,
Don't know if it is me, but I only see a weekly and a 5 min chart. Wasn't there supposed to be a daily too?
sorry TVR... I figured the weekly was better since the trade was at the beginning of the week.
I'd still like to see a daily chart, before entering but:
pace on the wave down is slow compared to the upmove, and on lower volume.
The second move up (from 10:15) in the range has good pace. At this point I would not enter yet. I would like to see a base or an even slower move down, compared to the move beweteen 9:40 and 10:15.
Entry (long) would be if the trendline above that base (or slower wave down) would be broken.
Stop below the low of the last segment.
My first target would be the morning range added to the swing low before the breakout.
If target would have been hit I would sell half and keep the rest on a trailing stop.
I would not take the trade here. Wait for a NRB and short due to resistance at 11.40-11.50 level and bearish shooting star on the weekly chart.
LONG: Gap up on high volume, consolidating on lower volume. I would go long on the break of the 2nd long bar in the 5 min chart (around 11.40ish)
Is sideways an option?
I would go long and place my entry above 11.50 resistance.
Reasons:
1) Feb-May showed failure at 11.50 with invert hammer followed by weak hangman (type) candlestick a few times. But this week, it followed by a strong hangman.
2) Volume picked up the last few weeks along with wide range bar. Meaning more buying interest.
3) 5 min chart showed rally took place inside of 2nd bar and buyer took control back near bottom of 2 nd bar low. Volume increase at the 10:25 and took out the wick of 10AM.
Therefore, I would pay close attention at 11.50 resistance and place my buy order at top of that point.
Thank you.
I would go long and place my entry above 11.50 resistance.
Reasons:
1) Feb-May showed failure at 11.50 with invert hammer followed by weak hangman (type) candlestick a few times. But this week, it followed by a strong hammer <----(correction 2:37AM).
2) Volume picked up the last few weeks along with wide range bar. Meaning more buying interest.
3) 5 min chart showed rally took place inside of 2nd bar and buyer took control back near bottom of 2 nd bar low. Volume increase at the 10:25 and took out the wick of 10AM.
Therefore, I would pay close attention at 11.50 resistance and place my buy order at top of that point.
Thank you.
My 2 Cents:
Stock will rise to new heights, reasons being:
* 1st 3 bars (ie, 15mins OR) = an OR with a top/bot tail = bearish
* next 6 bars (2-15 mins bars) = 2 red bars, also bearish, especially since it pullback almost to 1st 15 min bar low (ie, OR)
* However, the following 3 bars (or 4th 15min bar) = bullish engulfing = very optimistic. The negative was the volume seemed dominated by the red bars, but do like swelling pattern.
* assuming 1) the stock "gap" b/o from a tight range on the daily chart, 2) the volume on the 1st 15 min OR range was > than the prior 4 days on the intraday chart, and 3)NR7 type consolidation is formed at the top of the bullish engulfing bar, I am inclined to say this stock will b/o to new highs.
Thanks, Rudy
I too would like to take the conservative route and go over the highs of the day. I would do this simply because, it seems to have hit resistance and created that topping tail on high volume at the 3rd bar.
However, having said that the volume on the down bars seems to have been relatively light. Yet again there is a vast number of week holders from the weekly charts looking to increase supply. Having said that, if I were to trade it and felt that I had an edge, I would only take a small number of shares here. If it rises and starts falling apart at the point of resistance, then I would quickly exit for a small gain or a small loss. If it did break break out over resistance, I would then add shares if the setup were nice.
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