Missed trades - WO 5/25

This may or may not be a new weekend feature on the blog. I suppose it depends on the number of missed trades :)

It happens to us all the time, right? You see a trade in your watchlist but there may be one thing you don't like and you just can't pull the trigger. It always seems those trades end up doing well while you're stuck in a pig. I'm trying to drastically cut down on my 'passed' trades. It's my belief that while some of these 'passed' trades will indeed fail - the majority of them will do well and outweigh the risks/losses.

The following are trades I passed on for one reason or another (actually, I missed MICC because it wasn't in my WL that day. I made some changes to try to include gappers that don't take off immediately. And I missed APOL because I was at the French Open). Both those trades would have made my week (or month at this point).

Friday's trades

I hate any losing day, but Friday's just last longer. Maybe I should just stop trading Friday's.... always seems to have crappy action. Entered NE and BUCY long. Only BUCY moved to 1R and allowed me to place half my shares at BE.

Looking forward to 4 (got tix to French Open on Friday) straight trading days next week.

Thursday's trade

Again... didn't really find much from a very reduced list. Fortunately, the one I did find produced. Went long AU off a break of the 5th bar high (10-min) which was an inside nr7/nr3 pullback play. Price rose quickly... almost too quickly and I didn't want to risk too much lost profit. After partialing, I sold all my shares 2 bars later. In hindsight, I think I made the right move as price chopped around after that.

Considering this was my first and only trade of the week I feel lucky to have earned some nice profit.

No trades

I was actually planning on trading but as things turned out... I just couldn't. Had better things to do like go to the French Open - great seats, standing next to Rafael Nadal and photographing some beautiful players in motion. Here are just a few pics:

Tuesday's (lack of) trades

Nothing happening. Market opened down... all my stocks gapped back up leaving not a lot candidates to work with. A bummer considering I've had 4 days off and was itching to get back to trading. But it will have to wait until tomorrow (hopefully).

Thursday's trades

Another bad day. Shorted PETM, DE, HPQ and VALE. Only DE managed to get near 1R and I sold half my shares at BE. I probably shouldn't have entered HPQ but there were some NR opportunities at the ORL. 

I will be taking tomorrow off for a short weekend trip. Hopefully next week will bring better results. Enjoy the weekend.

Wednesday's trades

Today blew... big time. Traded COST, MTL, MT and X (all long). Every one except MTL reached 1R and I was able to bring 1/2 my shares to BE before being stopped out. What a crazy selloff at 11:45. I had actually managed to get back in the green and was setting limit-sell orders before I heard the 'dings' of executed orders.

I will be shocked if other gap traders managed to make some cash today.

Tuesday's trades

Another choppy day. Took two trades, MT and UYM. Made some dinner money with MT and BE with UYM. 

I thought they were both pretty solid entries but nothing really happened afterwards. Lots of candidates in my WL but not a lot of good setups. 

Monday's trades

Considering the strength in the overall market from the get go... I figured there would be a bunch of opportunities. Not the case and the ones I did enter went flat. A very curious day indeed.

Went long BHI (10:10, :10) and KWK (11:15, :15). I exited half my shares of BHI after it just wiggled around and was stopped for a full loss on KWK (luckly my risk wasn't that high). 

Today is done... bring on tomorrow.

Rise or Fall - Revealed

I was happy to bring back the Rise or Fall feature and forgot how useful it is for me. Thanks to all for the comments and insight... really good stuff. Probably the most interesting thing for me is how my thought process was very similar to those who commented. Hopefully it's a sign of maturity on my part. On to the reveal...

Stock: GENZ (5/15/09)

Timeframe: 10-min

Trade: Short

Result: Win (but most likely on half my shares)

Analysis: I didn't take GENZ because it actually wasn't on my watchlist. It didn't gap at least 1.5% but, with a little push from TraderAM's EXC trade, I hope to catch some of these smaller gap plays.

For me, the right decision to make - based on the info on the chart - is to go short. No brainer. And here's why:

-bar three was a doji which indicates indecision. This is bearish especially in a gap down stock right below the PDL. 

-entry bar (4th) closed weak below the 23.6% fib. retracement level from yesterday's high to the :30 ORL.

-entry bar also closed very weak below S1 and the 5ema also acted as strong resistance.

-entry bar was NR3, inside bar with a .21 risk from its high to low. The ORL was .33 away so 1R was achievable with a potential 5R reward if it ran to the fib. ext. That looks good to me.

-As King Jamie mentioned in the comments, price did find support at the $59 (ORL) level and bounced back up. Price then pulled back close to the entry area and, if I had taken the trade, I probably would've been out 1/2 my shares at BE (since price hit my 1R level).

-Price could not sufficiently penetrate above the 5ema and fell all the way down to the fib. level. 

While there is risk in entering above the ORL, this setup really is my 'bread and butter' play as of late. A couple of these every day and I can spend more time in the French Riviera :)

Rise or Fall - 5/14/09

And... it's back. By not-so-popular demand I put together a quick Rise or Fall candidate. I figure that in this current market it might not be so easy to predict the move. Or is it????

So, just look at the chart - the same chart that I look at during the day - and let me know if you would put your money long or short in this trade... and why or why not. I want to hear your reasoning.

Friday's trades

Leaving to dinner now as nothing looks remotely promising in my WL. The day did start with a lot of promise as I was long AGU and IBN. AGU ended at BE as I entered off a break of the 10am bar (:10) high. It was a pretty wide bar and the two long upper tails that preceeded made me set my stop to BE once the stock moved. 

With IBN, I entered off a break of the 10:15 bar high. Things looked good but couldn't get past the 24 level (which was my 1R area). Sold half at BE and the rest when price closed below the 5ema (11:30 bar). 

Still ended the week up so that's something to be happy about. Other than that... this week sucked. Enjoy the weekend.

Thursday's trade

Not a lot of action today. Just took one trade... CA. Went long off a break of the 11:10 bar high (:10). Things looked good but the 18.50 level just could not hold as support. Sold when price closed below the 5ema.

Wednesday's trades

Pretty unspectacular day. Ended up green but not much to write home about. DRYS was an easy-going trade and BAC proved to move in the direction I wanted it to, but I was not convinced it would. VNDA was just not nice with stop-slippage driving me mad.

Tuesday's trades

Sloppy day. Not just the price action but also the way I traded. First, I went short JNS off a break of the 11am bar low (:10). This turned out to be the ideal entry as price proceeded to fall and reverse at the fib. ext. However, the trade really wasn't going anywhere at first and I sold half my shares at BE. Ended up selling the rest at BE too. I was just very impatient with this trade.

Next, I went long WINN off a break of the 11:20 bar high. Not my usual setup but it was a bit of a 'dummy-style' trade. Everything looked good at first and 1R was reached quickly. But.... price moved down and took 1/2 my shares at BE and the rest at the original stop. I'm just bummed I didn't enter long again off a break of the 1pm bar high (:15) which is more of my kind of setup.

I also passed on GG (6/15) which just added to my frustration.

Monday's trades

Another come-from-behind day. Started everything off shorting UNH on a break of the 10:40 bar low (:10). Price almost reached 1R before turning back on me and stopping me out. I later tried to short again off a break of the 11:10 bar low but settled that trade for BE after seeing support at 27.50. 

The saving grace today was actually a long in DISH. I bought off a break of the 11:30 bar high (:15)... which was a NR3/NR7 combo bar. Price went up nicely... then stalled. I managed to get a little more than 2R on this which helped to offset the UNH loss.

Friday's trades

I didn't even think I would post today because I hadn't planned on trading. However, I managed to get back home and fire up the scans before 10am (EST). 

Went long on both RNP and ATVI. With RNP, I entered on a break of the 10:30 bar high (:10) which was a NR7/NR3 combo candle. Price quickly went up 1R, but then came back down and I scaled out at BE. The rest of the trade went according to plan and I exited just below the fib. ext.

With ATVI, I went long off a break of the 10:30 bar high (:15). Again, price went up to 1R but then came back down just enough to make me scale out at BE. Afterwards... everything looked good I sold just below the fib. ext. It's almost 2pm right now so I don't know if the stock will rise, but it looks like I sold at the top - which feels pretty good :)

This is a much different Friday than the last. Plus, I wasn't even planning on trading today. Have a good weekend.

Thursday's trades

Tough going today as a lot of stocks faded the gap and it is not something I focus on. Shorted T and EXPD. With T, I entered off a break of the 10:50 bar low (:10) and it quickly stopped me out. I really didn't like the first 3 WR bars but I still took the trade anyway. I then shorted EXPD off a break of the 11am bar (:15). Price moved nicely to the ORL (which was also my 1R target), but then bounced back up. I happened to look at the past 3 days and noticed was a strong pivot/support area at $34 and I moved my stop to BE.

I passed a long opportunity in CXW off a break of the 10:30 bar high. Would have netted a nice profit with the ORH as my target.

Wednesday's trades

Just a couple of 'stress-free' trades. The kind that don't give you much worry about when you enter and no surprises when you exit. Just trading the plan.

First went short PBI off a break of the 10:10 bar low (:10). Nice shooting star off a pullback to the 5ema. The ORL was actually my 1R target so I was curious to see how price would act. I thought it would continue further below the ORL but it didn't and I exited all my shares on a break of the 12:10 bar high. When price closes above the 5ema (in a short) that's my cue to bolt. 

Next I went long AU off a break of the 10:30 bar high (:10). The entry candle was a perfect hammer at R4, closing above $35 and was an nr3/nr7 bar. The only bad thing was it was below the :30 ORH. It all worked out and I managed to squeeze a $1 gain out of it in the end.

Tuesday's trades

Started the day off with a mistake. Shorted SBAC off a break of the 10:20 bar low. After the next bar closed, I went to set my stop and accidentally set the stop at 23.25 instead of 24.25. I was out immediately for a small loss. After looking at the setup again, I really didn't like my decision to enter and just took the loss. I probably would have exited this trade at BE as price did hit 1R.

Then, I went long PEGA off a break of the 11:20 bar high. The trade took off quickly and I was hoping for a nice run. Even though it was a thinner-than-normal trading stock, the setup was decent. The ORH was an initial target of interest and price broke through that pretty convincingly. Unfortunately, price just churned after that until the close. I ended up scaling out along the way for a nice profit. 

I'll take it

While I wish every day gave me more Rs than I know what to do with... the days when I can work myself out of an early hole and into decent profit are just as satisfying. I executed my trades exactly like I wanted to execute them. I didn't tinker... followed my exit strategy and stayed green.

Traded LVS, BKC, CHL and JOYG. Here's a quick recap of each:

LVS: went long off the 10:50 bar high (:10) after it pulled back to the :30 ORH. Got choppy after the entry and I scaled out at BE. Left the rest to run at the original stop and sold all shares below the fib. ext.

BKC: went long off the 10:30 bar high (:10). This was a little riskier since the entry was below the :30 ORH and R2. The trade was doing pretty well but when it couldn't find support at R2... I bailed at BE. Since it was a riskier entry, I didn't want to risk losing money after being up more than 2R.

JOYG: went long off a break of the 11am bar high (:15). This was my 'bitch' trade of the day. Setup looked wonderful, nice pullback to ORH... lots of room to run, strong gap day. Then... it flopped and stopped me out.

CHL: went long off a break of the 12:30 bar high (:30). This trade saved my day. The entry was a nice pullback to the 5ema off a hammer-like candle. Worked right off the bat but just could not get past $48. Consolidated a bit and I just exited all my shares after it took a convincing bounce down from $48.

These gap and crap days really blow as you think you're in for a good day and then... pffft, nada.

Friday's trades

Disappointing day. Disappointing because I varied from my exit rules and it ended up costing me. Here's how. First trade was RIMM long (5/15). My 1R point was 72.63... price went up to 72.56 two bars later and I decided to place half my shares at BE (instead of waiting for price to hit 1R). Now, if I would have waited for price to hit 1R before doing anything... I think I would be looking at a profit on this trade instead of a loss as price moved upward close to a dollar later on. Instead, I took a small loss, then tried to re-enter the trade off the 10-min chart (11:30 bar high) and was stopped out for a full loss. Understand the disappointment????

Next was EXPE, the stock I wanted to trade yesterday but passed. Well... it presented a decent setup today as well off the :15 (5th bar high). But I passed again because of yesterday's move and the fact it was right below the :30 ORH. Soooooo.... an hour later I look at the 10-min chart and go long off a break of the 11:50 bar high - price churns, I partial at BE and get stopped out. Again, disappointing because I my first entry was the right one.

Finally, JRCC... not much to say here except choppy conditions ruined the trade. Entered long off a break of the 1:15 bar high and was stopped out later on.

I really hate losing money on Friday. Makes me think about this shit all weekend long. Well, I won't. I had a good mental week coming off vacation, I made some good trades and spotted ones that I should have taken. Things will come together. Enjoy the weekend.