May 16, 2009

Rise or Fall - 5/14/09

And... it's back. By not-so-popular demand I put together a quick Rise or Fall candidate. I figure that in this current market it might not be so easy to predict the move. Or is it????

So, just look at the chart - the same chart that I look at during the day - and let me know if you would put your money long or short in this trade... and why or why not. I want to hear your reasoning.


max said...

Looks like a short at the break of the 4th candle.

1 its a gap down.
2 previous day low is acting as resistance.

other than that its mixed bag

Kat Bay said...

I would definitely look for a short here. The third bar, a shooting star followed by a weak red bar off the EMA, probably a NR4, closing at the bottom of the bar. Depending at overall market direction I'd put in a short order 3c below fourth bar low.

Swing2Freedom said...

hmmm .....

I guess i won't take any action at this moment yet.

$59 seems like a support, and the risk.reward doesn't seem favourable.

just my 2cents.

TL said...

It has to be a short if there is any trade. Reasons being,

1. Gap down below PDL on high volume
2. Pullback to 5EMA
3. Candle closed weak with upper tail
4. NR trigger bar on low volume
5. Closed below S1, 25% retracement of PDH to ORL, and probably 50% retracement of OR
6. Filled the tail of previous bar

Higher timeframe pattern is not that convincing, being,

1. 1st bar was wide and wild (long upper and lower tails)
2. 2nd bar formed a double bottom at round number and closed very strong
3. 3rd bar formed another long tail doji which didn't give much confidence

Since higher timeframe didn't confirm, I wouldn't have traded it.

The best part in this trade (for me) is that it tested PDL a few times and failed. And there is some room in terms of risk and reward before meeting support at previous low of day. So if taken, watch out how it trades at $59. If not taken decisively, tighten stop to BE at least. If it did, exit at FE or as per your trading rules.

You should give us your analysis when you "reveal" the answer.

QQQBall said...

look to get short. like 3:1 or better R/R. a break below the low of the doji (little intraday tweezer top) would do the trick

Jamie said...

First two sticks form tweezer bottom reversal. Reversal stalls on third bar doji. Forth bar is bearish NRIB with price contraction leading to expansion, but how far? The tweezer bottom likely to hold on the first test, so I'm holding out for a better entry later on. Hopefully, after the test of $59.00, price consolidates sideways, leading to a low risk BO.

I'm glad you're bringing this game back. Cheers!